I run in leftist circles (surprise, surprise). Before the last election there was a lot of talk in those circles that HRC was a terrible candidate. They pointed at her economic policies as representing the same neo-conservative track begun with Carter, enhanced by Reagan, then Bill, and continued by every president since. True enough. Then they pointed to a list of personal failings straight out of the right wing smear machine that had been targeting her since Bill was first elected. Not true. And we won’t even mention they way that they, along with many of Trump’s true believers, swallowed the Russian propaganda hook line and sinker. They looked at Trump and said as inept as he was, he still wasn’t much worse than HRC... besides, he would never beat her so they were going to “vote their conscience” and give their vote to a third party candidate who truly represented their pure visions for the US. After all, why should they compromise?
Well... we have seen why. Trump did win. Indeed, there were many on the left who were predicting he would win (Michael Moore immediately comes to mind). He has decimated every agency of government. He has established a kleptocracy more brazen than we American’s could even imagine. He has nominated judges who will literally change the direction of US law, perhaps forever. He has engineered a new zeitgeist where moral values don’t count and truth and facts no longer hold sway. And this morning, the Republicans voted in lock step to dismantle our economy, shifting everything to their wealthy overloads.
I almost can’t blame Trump. He is simply stupid. I truly believe that he does not realize the consequences of his actions... and because of who he is, when he does realize them, he doesn’t care. Nothing more could be expected from him. Ditto the Trump heads - low information voters filled with fear and hate - nothing better could be expected. The Republican elected officials? Them I can blame. They knew what they were doing. Some had been telling us this was their plan all along and we can’t be surprised at them, but there were a few who seemed to be thoughtful, principaled people. They still voted to rape the poor, the elderly, the middle class, children, the disabled, and just about every other category other than the top .01%. Yes, I blame them and I hope that the electorate will get smart enough and motivated enough to vote enough of them out in ‘18 to turn the tables and begin to rebuild America.
The one’s I am most disappointed in and are worried about as we move forward are those on the far left. If you voted third party, I blame you. I don’t care where you live, just by arguing for your moral purity you motivated people to stay home or to vote for third party candidates. It didn’t take very many staying home, complaining that there was no good choice, the give the election to Trump. You helped elect him and the minions below who are enabling his dystopian vision. I only hope that moving forward you will be able to see that elections have consequences... that pure choices do not exist... that sometimes we have to hold our noses and vote for a candidate who will not destroy the very ideals that have made us who we are/were.
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Saturday, December 02, 2017
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Failing presidents & hypocrisy
I've heard the word "hypocrite" a lot lately, referring to Democrats who complained about Republicans who pledged to obstruct Obama at every opportunity and yet seem determined to do exactly the same thing with Donald Trump. It isn't the same and here is why.
1. In spite of what we heard on Right Wing Talk Radio & TV, Obama is not and never was a communist out to destroy our country. He is a centrist, committed to working across the isle, many of whose ideas actually reflected Republican ideas. Take the ACA. It was a program very similar in its most important details to a health care proposal put forward by the right wing Heritage Foundation. It was centered around the private sector and enfranchised the insurance industry. Had he truly been a leftist, Obama would have argued for Medicare for all as Bernie Sanders has done.
Trump, on the other hand, seems to be poised to blow up the entire government. He has already skirted many of the common practices of the past such as releasing his tax returns so we can all see whether his interests conflict with those of the American people. He has chosen to avoid intelligence briefings, either because he truly believes there is nothing he needs to learn or because he doesn't trust the intelligence agencies. His cabinet appointees so far seem almost all to fall into one of two categories... either they have no experience and no knowledge of the area they will be heading or they are committed to destroying the role of the very agency they will head.
2. Obama clearly fell in line with the general trajectory of history. Whether we like what he dd or not, he didn't do anything that made people go, "What?"
Even before he is inaugurated, Trump is already breaking with policies and ideas that are foundational to our security both nationally and internationally. His thoughtless actions regarding our treaties have already begun to push Asian allies towards China and he has unnecessarily provoked China by skirting the one China doctrine. His relationship to Russia is troubling at best. His calls for the US military to commit war crimes and his commitment to sidestepping accepted rules that have to do with nepotism and conflicts of interest are equally troubling.
On the national level, he is either allowing or directing the dismantling of many of the social safety nets upon which many people depend.
3. Obama knew what government is and what its role is. Trump doesn't seem to understand that government is not a business and the rules by which it operates are not the same. If his business fails, it can declare bankruptcy and at least Donald walks away unscathed. It has happened multiple times. If government fails... that is something altogether different.
4. Obama knows that when the president speaks, things happen, so he is careful about what he says. Trump has no such wisdom or he enjoys the chaos that happens when he says something unwise. In either case... it is not good.
5. Obama has a heart to leave the world a better place. You may not agree with his vision of that, but you cannot argue the point. Nothing that Trump has ever done in his entire life would indicate that he has any concerns beyond himself. There is nothing beyond his skin that he seems to truly care about beyond the way that it impacts him.
6. The best you could say about the Republican obstructionists might be that some were acting consistently with their values - that they hate the federal government and literally want it to fail so by obstructing a president as thoughtful and charismatic as Obama who began his presidency with a real mandate, they were working to that end. And now they find a kindred soul in Trump, who wants to see government curtailed not out of some political ideology but because it constrains his personal behavior.
Democratic obstructionists will be working to preserve the rights and safety nets, some of which have been in place for decades and upon which many people depend. Without those safety nets, people will die.
So... are there areas where Dems should support Trump? Say, like if he proposes working on infrastructure? I have mixed feelings. I should say that I believe he will only propose improving the infrastructure if he will personally benefit from it. Still there clearly are areas where he may see his self-interests and those of the nations align... so yes, I would argue that we work on those issues with him. But we must never allow those issues to cause us to lose sight of the other things he is doing or allowing to not be done.
If Trump and the Republicans in office work to tear apart Social Security, Medicare, and the ACA (all of which they propose to do), I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail there. If they want to tear up treaties and alliances with other nations and put the entire world at risk, I will work to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If they continue to enfranchise hate groups and normalize the kind of behavior I would punish my grandson for, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If the Republicans continue their march to destroy our government by undermining trust in all facets of it, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If the Trump administration actually becomes the kleptocracy I expect it will be, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail.
1. In spite of what we heard on Right Wing Talk Radio & TV, Obama is not and never was a communist out to destroy our country. He is a centrist, committed to working across the isle, many of whose ideas actually reflected Republican ideas. Take the ACA. It was a program very similar in its most important details to a health care proposal put forward by the right wing Heritage Foundation. It was centered around the private sector and enfranchised the insurance industry. Had he truly been a leftist, Obama would have argued for Medicare for all as Bernie Sanders has done.
Trump, on the other hand, seems to be poised to blow up the entire government. He has already skirted many of the common practices of the past such as releasing his tax returns so we can all see whether his interests conflict with those of the American people. He has chosen to avoid intelligence briefings, either because he truly believes there is nothing he needs to learn or because he doesn't trust the intelligence agencies. His cabinet appointees so far seem almost all to fall into one of two categories... either they have no experience and no knowledge of the area they will be heading or they are committed to destroying the role of the very agency they will head.
2. Obama clearly fell in line with the general trajectory of history. Whether we like what he dd or not, he didn't do anything that made people go, "What?"
Even before he is inaugurated, Trump is already breaking with policies and ideas that are foundational to our security both nationally and internationally. His thoughtless actions regarding our treaties have already begun to push Asian allies towards China and he has unnecessarily provoked China by skirting the one China doctrine. His relationship to Russia is troubling at best. His calls for the US military to commit war crimes and his commitment to sidestepping accepted rules that have to do with nepotism and conflicts of interest are equally troubling.
On the national level, he is either allowing or directing the dismantling of many of the social safety nets upon which many people depend.
3. Obama knew what government is and what its role is. Trump doesn't seem to understand that government is not a business and the rules by which it operates are not the same. If his business fails, it can declare bankruptcy and at least Donald walks away unscathed. It has happened multiple times. If government fails... that is something altogether different.
4. Obama knows that when the president speaks, things happen, so he is careful about what he says. Trump has no such wisdom or he enjoys the chaos that happens when he says something unwise. In either case... it is not good.
5. Obama has a heart to leave the world a better place. You may not agree with his vision of that, but you cannot argue the point. Nothing that Trump has ever done in his entire life would indicate that he has any concerns beyond himself. There is nothing beyond his skin that he seems to truly care about beyond the way that it impacts him.
6. The best you could say about the Republican obstructionists might be that some were acting consistently with their values - that they hate the federal government and literally want it to fail so by obstructing a president as thoughtful and charismatic as Obama who began his presidency with a real mandate, they were working to that end. And now they find a kindred soul in Trump, who wants to see government curtailed not out of some political ideology but because it constrains his personal behavior.
Democratic obstructionists will be working to preserve the rights and safety nets, some of which have been in place for decades and upon which many people depend. Without those safety nets, people will die.
So... are there areas where Dems should support Trump? Say, like if he proposes working on infrastructure? I have mixed feelings. I should say that I believe he will only propose improving the infrastructure if he will personally benefit from it. Still there clearly are areas where he may see his self-interests and those of the nations align... so yes, I would argue that we work on those issues with him. But we must never allow those issues to cause us to lose sight of the other things he is doing or allowing to not be done.
If Trump and the Republicans in office work to tear apart Social Security, Medicare, and the ACA (all of which they propose to do), I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail there. If they want to tear up treaties and alliances with other nations and put the entire world at risk, I will work to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If they continue to enfranchise hate groups and normalize the kind of behavior I would punish my grandson for, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If the Republicans continue their march to destroy our government by undermining trust in all facets of it, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail. If the Trump administration actually becomes the kleptocracy I expect it will be, I will do what I can to obstruct them and call upon my representatives to do the same. I want them to fail.
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Jill Stein and Gary Johnson Are Trying to Make Donald Trump President
Ok... the title is click bait... but it is pretty close to accurate.
Here's the deal, in order to win the presidency, a candidate must get 51% of the electoral votes, i.e. 270 electoral votes. The presidency does not go to the candidate with the most electoral votes if none get to that threshold. The House of Representatives chooses the next president. Let me say that one more time... in caps... so that everyone gets it. IF NO CANDIDATE GETS 270 ELECTORAL VOTES THE HOUSE DECIDES THE NEXT PRESIDENT. They have to choose from among the top three of electoral college vote receivers but they make the decision with each state delegation getting one vote. This has happened twice in the history of the US - 1800 & 1824. AND FWIW, no 3rd party candidate has ever won the presidency.
Now, if you believe that Gary Johnson or Jill Stein can get 270 electoral votes... then... don't bother reading this because there is no way to get through your bubble.
If you believe that voting your conscience regardless of any possible outcomes is morally superior, again don't bother reading this because one can't reason with fundamentalists (and that simply is what you are).
Let's play out some scenarios... Here's a ridiculous one but say Gary Johnson unbelievably gets 49% of the electoral votes, Hillary gets 20%, Trump gets 25% and Jill Stein gets the last 6%... Trump likely wins. The House won't give the presidency to a Democrat and that means they'll need to come together. They'd never get all of their states to vote for a libertarian or a Green which leaves Trump. Oh, and by the way, if they can't make a decision, the current Vice President acts as President... giving the office to a Democrat.
Second scenario... Hillary gets 49%, Trump gets 45% and Johnson & Stein split the additional 6... Trump wins for the above reasons. 2/3's of Stein's 3% would have given the election to HRC. It only takes a very small percentage for the third party candidates to be spoilers while at the same time, it is virtually impossible for them to actually win.
You might say, "But the Democrats will get a majority in the House and it is safe then even if the election goes to the House." Well... maybe. Maybe not. Remember, it isn't the membership of the House that votes, it is the delegations and each state gets one vote. So... if the majority of states send a Republican delegation, regardless of the overall balance of the House members, Trump wins. There is no way that a Republican House will elect anyone from another party as president and they have shown they have neither the ability or the patience to thoughtfully compromise. Add that while they're deliberating, Joe Biden is acting president and they will want to put Trump in as quickly as possible.
Just a fun side piece... the Senate chooses the Vice President... so they don't even have to be from the same party.
You might also say, "I live in a safe state so I can vote my conscience without worrying." Again... maybe... maybe not. This is a crazy election. NPR recently had a show where they interviewed a bunch of blue collar Democrats from Monessen, PA who said they were voting for Trump even though they didn't expect he can do any of the things he is promising. Frankly, I don't know what to expect. Hillary could win in a landslide... or Trump might beat her outright. Or the 3rd party spoilers might do just that and the election goes to the House and Donald Trump becomes president. I don't know what will happen and no state feels safe to me at this point. Voting for a third party candidate anywhere just seems too risky to me.
So here's the question... if no third party candidate has a snowball's chance in Phoenix of winning what in the world are Gary Johnson and Jill Stein doing? They have zero influence in the two major parties regardless of how many votes they get. (The people who will have influence in the parties are the ones who do the hard work of organizing within the parties. That is why the Tea Party was so effective in the Republican Party.) They cannot win. They'll never get 270 electoral votes and would never be chosen by the House as it is or will be in 2017. In Jill Stein's case, is she just trying to punish the Democrats for not being pure enough? Is this just some narcissistic game where they can demonstrate their purity and encourage others to do the same, damn the consequences? Or do they really not understand how the process works? Or are they really just plants working for Donald Trump to make him president? Regardless of their intent, if they get enough votes, that is exactly the result of their campaigns.
And of course, this is all just the electoral college stuff... there is the closer to the bone results like Florida in 2000 where if just 30% of those who voted for Ralph Nader had voted for Gore, there would have been no questions regarding who won the state, the SCOTUS mess would never have happened and W would not have been president. You play out the results of that. It is more likely that a third party candidate will simply influence who wins a given state. Remember, every state but two is winner take all in the electoral college so Johnson or Stein could receive 30% of the popular vote and get no electoral votes... but they would influence who wins the various states as per Nader in 2000.
So what does all of this add up to? A vote for anyone other than Hillary is a vote for Trump. He doesn't need to get a majority of the popular vote or even a majority of the electoral college to be the next president. All he needs is to keep Hillary from getting 270 electoral votes... and Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and all those who vote for either are trying to help him accomplish just that.
Here's the deal, in order to win the presidency, a candidate must get 51% of the electoral votes, i.e. 270 electoral votes. The presidency does not go to the candidate with the most electoral votes if none get to that threshold. The House of Representatives chooses the next president. Let me say that one more time... in caps... so that everyone gets it. IF NO CANDIDATE GETS 270 ELECTORAL VOTES THE HOUSE DECIDES THE NEXT PRESIDENT. They have to choose from among the top three of electoral college vote receivers but they make the decision with each state delegation getting one vote. This has happened twice in the history of the US - 1800 & 1824. AND FWIW, no 3rd party candidate has ever won the presidency.
Now, if you believe that Gary Johnson or Jill Stein can get 270 electoral votes... then... don't bother reading this because there is no way to get through your bubble.
If you believe that voting your conscience regardless of any possible outcomes is morally superior, again don't bother reading this because one can't reason with fundamentalists (and that simply is what you are).
Let's play out some scenarios... Here's a ridiculous one but say Gary Johnson unbelievably gets 49% of the electoral votes, Hillary gets 20%, Trump gets 25% and Jill Stein gets the last 6%... Trump likely wins. The House won't give the presidency to a Democrat and that means they'll need to come together. They'd never get all of their states to vote for a libertarian or a Green which leaves Trump. Oh, and by the way, if they can't make a decision, the current Vice President acts as President... giving the office to a Democrat.
Second scenario... Hillary gets 49%, Trump gets 45% and Johnson & Stein split the additional 6... Trump wins for the above reasons. 2/3's of Stein's 3% would have given the election to HRC. It only takes a very small percentage for the third party candidates to be spoilers while at the same time, it is virtually impossible for them to actually win.
You might say, "But the Democrats will get a majority in the House and it is safe then even if the election goes to the House." Well... maybe. Maybe not. Remember, it isn't the membership of the House that votes, it is the delegations and each state gets one vote. So... if the majority of states send a Republican delegation, regardless of the overall balance of the House members, Trump wins. There is no way that a Republican House will elect anyone from another party as president and they have shown they have neither the ability or the patience to thoughtfully compromise. Add that while they're deliberating, Joe Biden is acting president and they will want to put Trump in as quickly as possible.
Just a fun side piece... the Senate chooses the Vice President... so they don't even have to be from the same party.
You might also say, "I live in a safe state so I can vote my conscience without worrying." Again... maybe... maybe not. This is a crazy election. NPR recently had a show where they interviewed a bunch of blue collar Democrats from Monessen, PA who said they were voting for Trump even though they didn't expect he can do any of the things he is promising. Frankly, I don't know what to expect. Hillary could win in a landslide... or Trump might beat her outright. Or the 3rd party spoilers might do just that and the election goes to the House and Donald Trump becomes president. I don't know what will happen and no state feels safe to me at this point. Voting for a third party candidate anywhere just seems too risky to me.
So here's the question... if no third party candidate has a snowball's chance in Phoenix of winning what in the world are Gary Johnson and Jill Stein doing? They have zero influence in the two major parties regardless of how many votes they get. (The people who will have influence in the parties are the ones who do the hard work of organizing within the parties. That is why the Tea Party was so effective in the Republican Party.) They cannot win. They'll never get 270 electoral votes and would never be chosen by the House as it is or will be in 2017. In Jill Stein's case, is she just trying to punish the Democrats for not being pure enough? Is this just some narcissistic game where they can demonstrate their purity and encourage others to do the same, damn the consequences? Or do they really not understand how the process works? Or are they really just plants working for Donald Trump to make him president? Regardless of their intent, if they get enough votes, that is exactly the result of their campaigns.
And of course, this is all just the electoral college stuff... there is the closer to the bone results like Florida in 2000 where if just 30% of those who voted for Ralph Nader had voted for Gore, there would have been no questions regarding who won the state, the SCOTUS mess would never have happened and W would not have been president. You play out the results of that. It is more likely that a third party candidate will simply influence who wins a given state. Remember, every state but two is winner take all in the electoral college so Johnson or Stein could receive 30% of the popular vote and get no electoral votes... but they would influence who wins the various states as per Nader in 2000.
So what does all of this add up to? A vote for anyone other than Hillary is a vote for Trump. He doesn't need to get a majority of the popular vote or even a majority of the electoral college to be the next president. All he needs is to keep Hillary from getting 270 electoral votes... and Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and all those who vote for either are trying to help him accomplish just that.
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